Last week, Russia banned grain exports from 15 August through to December following days of speculation. As more details emerge, markets now look toward the wider FSU countries particularly Ukraine and Kazakhstan to see if similar restrictions will be put in place. It is these political drivers and the wait for final production figures that currently keep markets uncertain.

Russia is looking for support from its neighbours to also ban grain exports but, this may not be so easy for Ukraine as there would likely be implications on its WTO membership. However, the rumor of grain exports has been enough to keep Ukraine's domestic trade on edge. Many traders have ceased buying grain for export with this in mind, which may have consequences further along the supply chain.